Important dates:
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 2 | 1.7 | 10.1% | 17 | 0.15% |
| 10-19 | 1 | 1.6 | 10.1% | 17 | 0.12% |
| 20-29 | 6 | 3.7 | 22.5% | 38 | 0.18% |
| 30-39 | 4 | 2.6 | 16% | 27 | 0.2% |
| 40-49 | 4 | 1.6 | 10.1% | 17 | 0.16% |
| 50-59 | 3 | 2.0 | 14.2% | 24 | 0.19% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 1.0 | 7.1% | 12 | 0.1% |
| 70+ | 4 | 1.9 | 10.1% | 17 | 0.16% |
| All ages | 24 | 16.0 | 100% | 169 | 0.16% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 08 | 30178 | 232989 | 719 | 185 | 115 |
| Apr 09 | 30187 | 233145 | 720 | 185 | 115 |
| Apr 10 | 30195 | 233231 | 720 | 185 | 114 |
| Apr 11 | 30211 | 233418 | 720 | 185 | 124 |
| Apr 12 | 30235 | 233652 | 721 | 185 | 144 |
| Apr 13 | 30255 | 233929 | 722 | 185 | 160 |
| Apr 14 | 30279 | 234029 | 722 | 185 | 169 |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 08 | 18646 | 154609 | 698 | 182 | 37 |
| Apr 09 | 18647 | 154735 | 698 | 182 | 35 |
| Apr 10 | 18652 | 154779 | 698 | 182 | 35 |
| Apr 11 | 18660 | 154882 | 699 | 182 | 42 |
| Apr 12 | 18669 | 155014 | 699 | 182 | 50 |
| Apr 13 | 18678 | 155168 | 699 | 182 | 59 |
| Apr 14 | 18684 | 155223 | 699 | 182 | 63 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.4 | 4.8% | 3 | 0.04% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 0.1 | 4.8% | 3 | 0.04% |
| 20-29 | 0 | 1.1 | 20.6% | 13 | 0.18% |
| 30-39 | 2 | 1.3 | 20.6% | 13 | 0.15% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 0.4 | 12.7% | 8 | 0.1% |
| 50-59 | 3 | 1.4 | 20.6% | 13 | 0.13% |
| 60-69 | 1 | 0.9 | 11.1% | 7 | 0.08% |
| 70+ | 0 | 0.3 | 4.8% | 3 | 0.04% |
| All ages | 6 | 6.0 | 100% | 63 | 0.1% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 08 | 13463 | 90356 | 546 | 143 | 31 |
| Apr 09 | 13468 | 90381 | 546 | 143 | 34 |
| Apr 10 | 13470 | 90422 | 546 | 143 | 35 |
| Apr 11 | 13473 | 90482 | 546 | 143 | 34 |
| Apr 12 | 13480 | 90579 | 546 | 143 | 41 |
| Apr 13 | 13482 | 90623 | 546 | 143 | 41 |
| Apr 14 | 13485 | 90657 | 546 | 143 | 42 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 0.1 | 2.4% | 1 | 0.02% |
| 20-29 | 1 | 0.4 | 11.9% | 5 | 0.11% |
| 30-39 | 1 | 1.0 | 23.8% | 10 | 0.18% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 0.1 | 16.7% | 7 | 0.14% |
| 50-59 | 1 | 0.3 | 9.5% | 4 | 0.06% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 1.3 | 23.8% | 10 | 0.16% |
| 70+ | 0 | 0.3 | 11.9% | 5 | 0.08% |
| All ages | 3 | 3.6 | 100% | 42 | 0.09% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 08 | 34753 | 311434 | 1023 | 182 | 122 |
| Apr 09 | 34763 | 311604 | 1023 | 182 | 117 |
| Apr 10 | 34769 | 311737 | 1023 | 182 | 112 |
| Apr 11 | 34789 | 311932 | 1023 | 182 | 121 |
| Apr 12 | 34815 | 312334 | 1024 | 182 | 144 |
| Apr 13 | 34847 | 312581 | 1024 | 182 | 171 |
| Apr 14 | 34861 | 312684 | 1024 | 182 | 178 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 2.1 | 9.6% | 17 | 0.14% |
| 10-19 | 3 | 2.9 | 16.3% | 29 | 0.18% |
| 20-29 | 3 | 2.0 | 14.6% | 26 | 0.12% |
| 30-39 | 0 | 1.9 | 11.8% | 21 | 0.15% |
| 40-49 | 1 | 2.1 | 13.5% | 24 | 0.18% |
| 50-59 | 1 | 1.6 | 10.7% | 19 | 0.13% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 2.3 | 9% | 16 | 0.11% |
| 70+ | 3 | 3.4 | 14.6% | 26 | 0.2% |
| All ages | 14 | 18.3 | 100% | 178 | 0.15% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 08 | 125448 | 2435072 | 2547 | 507 | 1367 |
| Apr 09 | 125535 | 2436762 | 2547 | 507 | 1344 |
| Apr 10 | 125604 | 2437600 | 2547 | 507 | 1282 |
| Apr 11 | 125746 | 2439211 | 2549 | 507 | 1320 |
| Apr 12 | 125940 | 2442172 | 2552 | 507 | 1403 |
| Apr 13 | 126144 | 2444656 | 2554 | 507 | 1546 |
| Apr 14 | 126317 | 2445992 | 2556 | 507 | 1595 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 16 | 20.6 | 13.2% | 210 | 0.35% |
| 10-19 | 25 | 16.4 | 11.7% | 187 | 0.26% |
| 20-29 | 25 | 20.9 | 16.6% | 265 | 0.26% |
| 30-39 | 29 | 23.6 | 17.2% | 274 | 0.36% |
| 40-49 | 33 | 23.6 | 14.6% | 233 | 0.36% |
| 50-59 | 19 | 15.7 | 10.5% | 168 | 0.26% |
| 60-69 | 15 | 12.7 | 8.7% | 139 | 0.25% |
| 70+ | 11 | 10.9 | 7.3% | 117 | 0.24% |
| All ages | 173 | 144.6 | 100% | 1595 | 0.29% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 08 | 1590460 | 14214567 | 63481 | 14389 | 6329 |
| Apr 09 | 1590943 | 14223645 | 63487 | 14389 | 6269 |
| Apr 10 | 1591277 | 14229976 | 63497 | 14390 | 6082 |
| Apr 11 | 1592052 | 14241011 | 63509 | 14390 | 6434 |
| Apr 12 | 1593003 | 14257901 | 63521 | 14390 | 7033 |
| Apr 13 | 1593979 | 14272308 | 63539 | 14390 | 7762 |
| Apr 14 | 1594940 | 14279813 | 63548 | 14390 | 8172 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 76 | 76.6 | 9.5% | 775 | 0.12% |
| 10-19 | 96 | 69.0 | 10.3% | 840 | 0.11% |
| 20-29 | 149 | 106.9 | 16.3% | 1330 | 0.18% |
| 30-39 | 150 | 115.1 | 16.5% | 1350 | 0.18% |
| 40-49 | 141 | 103.0 | 13.7% | 1118 | 0.16% |
| 50-59 | 121 | 97.6 | 12.8% | 1044 | 0.13% |
| 60-69 | 118 | 82.9 | 10.8% | 881 | 0.12% |
| 70+ | 110 | 81.6 | 10.1% | 829 | 0.13% |
| All ages | 961 | 733.3 | 100% | 8172 | 0.14% |
Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going:
Various 7-day average trends
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 1.3 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.65 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2022-05-06 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 14177"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges